Retropolation: Looking 35 years ahead and then back to find new ideas
Aim of the Fibres & Paper 2030 project was to look ahead in the future of paper and its value chain. Over a period of 15 months, representatives from trade associations and companies worked together in the core project team to describe future markets and business opportunities for the year 2030.
The main challenge was to do this in such a way that practically useful knowledge could be derived for course-setting strategic decisions and to identify new, attractive business options.
To find answers that are as realistic as possible, they used the method of retropolation, a virtual journey through time. All available data and their possible effects were intensely discussed to develop a “gut feeling” about what could happen in future. Instead of looking at numerous separate, rapidly changing and often mutually interacting trends, the team members tried to identify the main elements of a realistic future scenario as basis for further discussions and the systematic exchange of thoughts and ideas.
Source: FENWIS GmbH (www.fenwis.de)